January 2026

Read the January e-newsletter HERE!

What Texas enrollment data is really telling us right now

If you’ve heard sweeping claims about declining enrollment, school choice growth, or “families fleeing public schools,” this episode offers a more grounded look at what’s actually happening and what’s harder to measure.

In a recent Texas School Alliance podcast, host HD Chambers talks with Bob Templeton, VP of the School Segment at Zonda, about statewide enrollment trends across public schools, charter schools, private schools, microschools, and homeschooling.

Here are the key takeaways worth knowing, even if you don’t press play:

• Texas is still adding about 50,000 school-aged children each year, but that growth is not evenly landing in traditional public school systems.
• Declining birth rates, slower housing turnover, and changing migration patterns are tightening enrollment in many districts at the same time.

• Homeschooling and alternative models are absorbing more growth than most people realize, yet remain difficult to track due to limited reporting, which complicates public debates about “losses” and “gains.”

• As Texas implements major school choice expansion, establishing a clear, honest baseline matters. Without it, policy decisions risk being built on incomplete or misleading narratives.

Why this matters:


Enrollment is not just a headcount issue. It drives funding, staffing, facilities planning, and public trust. This conversation helps separate structural demographic shifts from political talking points and reminds us that public schools are operating inside much larger population and housing dynamics they do not control.

If you work in or care about Texas public education, this episode is less about predictions and more about context — the kind that helps leaders respond thoughtfully instead of reactively.

Read the January e-newsletter HERE!